ժ NO2004.21

Complexity Digest 2004.21

Archive: http://www.comdig.org, European Mirror: http://www.comdig.de Asian
Mirror: http://www.phil.pku.edu.cn/resguide/comdig/ (Chinese GB-Code) "I think
the next century will be the century of complexity." Stephen Hawking



01. International Conference on Complex Systems 2004, Video Summaries
01.01. In the Era of Cheap DVD's, Anyone Can Be a Producer, NY Times
02. Machine Failure Forewarning Via Phase-Space Dissimilarity Measures, Chaos
02.01. Mimicking Humpback Whale Flippers May Improve Airplane Wing Design,
03. Sex-Linked Inheritance Of Hearing And Song In The Belgian Waterslager
Canary, Alphagalileo & Biol. Lett.
03.01. Species Interactions and the Evolution of Sex, Science
04. Do Airborne Particles Induce Heritable Mutations?, Science
04.01. Reduction of Particulate Air Pollution Lowers the Risk of Heritable
Mutations in Mice, Science
05. Advantageous Indirect Interactions In Systems Of Competition, J. Theo.
06. Storm-in-a-Box Forecasting, Science
06.01. No End Yet to Forecast Advances, Science
07. Oscillating Global Regulators Control the Genetic Circuit, Science
07.01. Evidence For Ecology's Role In Speciation, Nature
07.02. Asphalt Volcanism and Chemosynthetic Life, Science
08. Big Buzz As Cicadas Arrive After 17-Year Gap, Nature
08.01. Treetop Opera, Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History
09. Are Bacteria Turning Our Own Weapons Against Us?, Alphagalileo
10. Exclusive Consolidated Memory Phases in Drosophila, Science
10.01. Imaging Study Shows Brain Maturing, ScienceDaily
10.02. Scale Errors Offer Evidence for a Perception-Action Dissociation Early
in Life, Science
10.03. At Times, Children Play With The Impossible, Science News
11. A Puzzle That Archimedes Pondered, Science News
12. The Parental Investment Conflict In Continuous Time: St. Peter's Fish As An
Example, J. Theo. Biol.
13. Controlling the Ups and Downs of Synaptic Strength, Science
14. Perceived Threats and Real Killers, Science
15. Growth, Poverty And The IMF, J. Int. Development
16. Smart Glasses Detect Eye Contact, NewScientist
17. Religion and Science, Futures
17.01. Nobility and Stupidity: Modeling the Evolution of Class Endogamy, arXiv
18. Turning Friend Into Foe in Baghdad, NY Times
18.01. Poor Security Has Undermined Iraq's Reconstruction Effort, Knight Ridder
19. Complex Challenges: Global Terrorist Networks
19.01. Reveal the Rules, Washington Post
19.02. U.S. Nearing Deal on Way to Track Foreign Visitors, NY Times
19.03. Database Tagged 120,000 as Possible Terrorist Suspects, NY Times
19.04. Evidence Is Cited Linking Koreans to Libya Uranium, NY Times
20. Links & Snippets
20.01. Other Publications
20.02. Webcast Announcements
20.03. Conference & Call for Papers Announcements


01. International Conference on Complex Systems 2004 , Video Summaries

Note: We did not have permission from the organizer to webcast presentations.
Instead we present short summary statements in either asf or mpeg4 format (see

   Madhur Anand -   Quantification Of Biocomplexity

Pierpaolo Andriani -    Power Law Phenomena In Organizations

Hannelore Brandt -    Indirect Reciprocity And The Evolution Of Morals

Irene Chen -    Osmotic Effects On Lipid Vesicle Growth

Ariel Cintron-Arias,  Rumors on Complex Attractors

Jim Collins -   Engineered Gene Networks

John Doyle -   Robustness and Fragility

Cefn Hoile -  Application Of Immunological Principles To The Defensive Systems
Of The Computer

Thomas Homer-Dixon -  Complexity Of Global Systems

Sui Huang -    Complex Gene Networks and Drug Discovery

Don Ingbert -    Systems Biology

Brian Josephson -  How We Might Be Able To Understand The Brain

Stuart Kauffman -  Understanding Genetic Regulatory Networks: The Ensemble

Yoshiki Kazuno

Lev Levitin -  Entropy And Information

Neo Martinez -
  Food Webs

Hiroyuki Masuda -   Integrated Model Of Emergency Evacuation Of People After A
Big Earthquake At The Busy Quarter Near A Major Junction Station In Suburban

Lisa Marie Meffert
-  Experiments On The Escape From Extinction: Lessons From The Common

Gottfried Mayer-Kress -
  Multiple Time-Scale Landscape Models of Motor Learning

Eve Mitleton-Kelly -    An Integrated Methodology To Facilitate The Emergence
Of New Ways Of Organizing

Martin Nowak -
  Evolutionary Systems

Carlos Parra -
  Evolutionary Dynamics Of Knowledge

Salil H. Patel -
  Complex Medical Information Systems: A Social Context

Alan Perelson,
  Immunological Evolution

Jonathan Vos Post -    New Approaches to Game Theory

Luis M. Rocha -    Extraction and Semi-metric Analysis of Social and Biological

Hiroki Sayama -
  Self-Protection And Diversity In Self-Replicating Cellular Automata

Margareta Segerstahl -
  Coupling Sexual Reproduction And Complex Multicellularity

Wei-Min Shen -
  Self-Reconfigurable Robots And Digital Hormones

Cassandra L. Smith -   Schizophrenia: A Complex And Multifactorial Disease

Steven Strogatz -

Seth Tisue-
  NetLogo: A Simple Environment for Modeling Complexity

John Peter Wikswo -
  From Physics To Medicine

Stephen Wolfram  - New Science

Andrew Wuensche -

  Studying discrete dynamical networks with DDLab

* International Conference on Complex Systems 2004, Contributed by the
Complexity Digest team , 04/05/16-21, Complexity Digest Video Archive


01.01. In the Era of Cheap DVD's, Anyone Can Be a Producer , NY Times

Excerpts: DVD distribution has helped create a market for specialized visual

At its most developed, DVD distribution includes companies like Netflix, which
rents movies - everything from Hollywood blockbusters to small art films - to
consumers by mail. (...)

Beyond  Netflix, lots of individuals and groups are producing videos in a
market that is as varied and heterogenous as the book industry. The market has
even spawned companies like  CustomFlix  (...), which for a fee will duplicate
DVD's in small runs and help distribute and sell them.

* In the Era of Cheap DVD's, Anyone Can Be a Producer, Peter Wayner  ,
04/05/20, NYTimes


02. Machine Failure Forewarning Via Phase-Space Dissimilarity Measures , Chaos

Abstract: We present a model-independent, data-driven approach to quantify
dynamical changes in nonlinear, possibly chaotic, processes with application to
machine failure forewarning. From time-windowed data sets, we use time-delay
phase-space reconstruction to obtain a discrete form of the invariant
distribution function on the attractor. Condition change in the system's
dynamic is quantified by dissimilarity measures of the difference between the
test case and baseline distribution functions. We analyze time-serial
mechanical (vibration) power data (...). The phase-space dissimilarity measures
show a higher consistency and discriminating power than traditional statistical
and nonlinear measures, which warrants their use for timely forewarning of
equipment failure.

* Machine Failure Forewarning Via Phase-Space Dissimilarity Measures, L. M.
Hively  , V. A. Protopopescu , 2004/05/21, DOI: 10.1063/1.1667631, Chaos: An
Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science
* Contributed by Atin Das


02.01. Mimicking Humpback Whale Flippers May Improve Airplane Wing Design ,

Excerpts: Wind tunnel tests of scale-model humpback whale flippers have
revealed that the scalloped, bumpy flipper is a more efficient wing design than
is currently used by the aeronautics industry on airplanes. The tests show that
bump-ridged flippers do not stall as quickly and produce more lift and less
drag than comparably sized sleek flippers. In their study, the team first
created two approximately 22-inch-tall scale models of humpback pectoral
flippers -- one with the characteristic bumps, called tubercles, and one
without. The models were machined from thick, clear polycarbonate (...). The
sleek flipper performance was similar to a typical airplane wing.

* Mimicking Humpback Whale Flippers May Improve Airplane Wing Design,
2004/05/13, ScienceDaily & Duke University
* Contributed by Atin Das


03. Sex-Linked Inheritance Of Hearing And Song In The Belgian Waterslager
Canary , Alphagalileo & Biol. Lett.

Abstract: Belgian Waterslager canaries have been bred to sing lower-frequency
songs than typical canaries. This strain also has poor hearing at high
frequencies, leading to a shift in their hearing range towards lower
frequencies than typical for canaries. The inheritance of hearing and song
characteristics was examined in hybrid offspring of matings between Belgian
Waterslager and typical canaries. Inheritance of hearing was consistent with a
single mutation carried on a Belgian Waterslager sex chromosome. Hybrids with
poorer high-frequency hearing tended to sing lower-frequency songs. (...) those
carrying the Belgian Waterslager mutation cannot hear high-pitched song
elements and thus develop low-pitched song.

* Sex-Linked Inheritance Of Hearing And Song In The Belgian Waterslager Canary,
T. F. Wright  , E. F. B.-Powell  , R. J. Dooling  , P. C. Mundinger ,
2004/05/17, Alphagalileo & Biology Letters
* Contributed by Atin Das


03.01. Species Interactions and the Evolution of Sex , Science

Excerpts: The Red Queen hypothesis posits that sex has evolved in response to
the shifting adaptive landscape generated by the evolution of interacting
species. (...) Here, we develop a population genetics model (...) and derive
the first general analytical conditions for the impact of species interactions
on the evolution of sex. Our results show that species interactions typically
select against sex. We conclude that, although the Red Queen favors sex under
certain circumstances, it alone does not account for the ubiquity of sex.

* Species Interactions and the Evolution of Sex, Sarah P. Otto  , Scott L.
Nuismer , 04/05/14, Science : 1018-1020


04. Do Airborne Particles Induce Heritable Mutations? , Science

Excerpts: Urban air is contaminated by gaseous and particulate emissions from a
variety of sources. (...) Airborne particles have been a particular concern
because epidemiological findings link current levels of airborne particulate
pollutants to a growing list of adverse health effects (1). On page 1008 of
this issue, Somers and colleagues (1). extend these observations beyond the
effects of particulate matter on somatic cells. They present experimental
evidence that airborne particles cause heritable genetic changes in the male
mouse germline that can be passed on to the next generation.

* Do Airborne Particles Induce Heritable Mutations?, Jonathan M. Samet , David
M. DeMarini  , Heinrich V. Malling , 04/05/14, Science : 971-972


04.01. Reduction of Particulate Air Pollution Lowers the Risk of Heritable
Mutations in Mice , Science

Excerpts: Urban and industrial air pollution can cause elevated heritable
mutation rates in birds and rodents. (...) Here we show that high-efficiency
particulate-air (HEPA) filtration of ambient air significantly reduced
heritable mutation rates (...) in laboratory mice housed outdoors near a major
highway and two integrated steel mills. These findings implicate exposure to
airborne particulate matter as a principal factor contributing to elevated
mutation rates in sentinel mice and add to accumulating evidence that air
pollution may pose genetic risks to humans and wildlife.

* Reduction of Particulate Air Pollution Lowers the Risk of Heritable Mutations
in Mice, Christopher M. Somers , Brian E. McCarry , Farideh Malek , James S.
Quinn , 04/05/14, Science : 1008-1010


05. Advantageous Indirect Interactions In Systems Of Competition , J. Theo.

Abstract: Ecological foodwebs display complex networks of species interactions.
Here we discuss how two species, whether directly interacting or not, can
crucially affect each other 'indirectly' through their mutual associations with
intermediary species. A technique is presented for quantifying these "indirect
effects", so that a simple measure emerges for the degree of overall harm or
advantage that a particular species encounters from another in the context of a
given foodweb. If the system is one of pure competition, the "direct"
interaction between any two species is of course harmful to both.

* Advantageous Indirect Interactions In Systems Of Competition, A. Roberts  ,
L. Stone lew521@yahoo.com , online 2004/03/18, DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2004.01.013,
Journal of Theoretical Biology
* Contributed by Pritha Das


06. Storm-in-a-Box Forecasting , Science

Excerpts: Globe-spanning computer models run on central supercomputers are
increasingly adept at predicting the broad weather picture (...). But they
often miss violent, small-scale weather such as tornadic storms (...), or the
details of a turbulent North Pacific storm slamming into the rugged mountains
of Washington state.

The answer to violent little surprises such as the storm that hit Fort Worth,
an increasing number of meteorologists say, is weather forecasting models that
focus on regional weather in unprecedented detail and are fine-tuned to local

* Storm-in-a-Box Forecasting, Richard A. Kerr , 04/05/14, Science : 946-948


06.01. No End Yet to Forecast Advances , Science

Excerpts: But human forecasters are still staying ahead of their machines,
(...). Knowing the shortcomings of the models, human forecasters are adding 10%
to 15% to the skill of forecasts over that of the models alone, he says. But
there's a theoretical limit to prediction--whether machine or human--somewhere
around 14 days, when atmospheric chaos prevails. And as models continue to
improve, Hoke says, the amount of room available for forecast improvement by
humans will eventually shrink. Someday, the machines could take over.

* No End Yet to Forecast Advances, Richard A. Kerr , 04/05/14, Science : 948


07. Oscillating Global Regulators Control the Genetic Circuit , Science

Excerpts: A newly identified cell-cycle master regulator protein, GcrA,
together with the CtrA master regulator, are key components of a genetic
circuit that drives cell-cycle progression and asymmetric polar morphogenesis
(...). The circuit drives out-of-phase temporal and spatial oscillation of GcrA
and CtrA concentrations, producing time- and space-dependent transcriptional
regulation of modular functions that implement cell-cycle processes. The
CtrA/GcrA regulatory circuit controls expression of polar differentiation
factors and the timing of DNA replication. CtrA functions as a silencer of the
replication origin and GcrA as an activator (...).

* Oscillating Global Regulators Control the Genetic Circuit, Julia Holtzendorff
, Dean Hung , Peter Brende , Ann Reisenauer , Patrick H. Viollier , Harley H.
McAdams , Lucy Shapiro , 04/05/14, Science : 983-987.


07.01. Evidence For Ecology's Role In Speciation , Nature

Excerpts: A principal challenge in testing the role of natural selection in
speciation is to connect the build-up of reproductive isolation between
populations to divergence of ecologically important traits. Demonstrations of
'parallel speciation', or assortative mating by selective environment, link
ecology and isolation, but the phenotypic traits mediating isolation have not
been confirmed. Here we show that the parallel build-up of mating
incompatibilities between stickleback populations can be largely accounted for
by assortative mating based on one trait, body size, which evolves predictably
according to environment.

* Evidence For Ecology's Role In Speciation, Jeffrey S. Mckinnon , Seiichi Mori
, Benjamin K. Blackman , Lior David , David M. Kingsley , Leia Jamieson ,
Jennifer Chou  , Dolph Schluter , Nature


07.02. Asphalt Volcanism and Chemosynthetic Life , Science

Excerpts: In the Campeche Knolls, in the southern Gulf of Mexico, lava-like
flows of solidified asphalt cover more than 1 square kilometer of the rim of a
dissected salt dome at a depth of 3000 meters below sea level. Chemosynthetic
tubeworms and bivalves colonize the sea floor near the asphalt, which chilled
and contracted after discharge. The site also includes oil seeps, gas hydrate
deposits, locally anoxic sediments, (...). Asphalt volcanism creates a habitat
for chemosynthetic life that may be widespread at great depth in the Gulf of

* Asphalt Volcanism and Chemosynthetic Life, I. R. MacDonald , G. Bohrmann , E.
Escobar , F. Abegg , P. Blanchon , V. Blinova , W. Br kmann , M. Drews , A.
Eisenhauer , X. Han , K. Heeschen , F. Meier , C. Mortera , T. Naehr , B.
Orcutt , B. Bernard , J. Brooks , M. de Farag?, 04/05/014, Science : 999-1002.


08. Big Buzz As Cicadas Arrive After 17-Year Gap , Nature

Excerpts: The emergence of periodical cicadas across the eastern United States,
after 17 years underground, is offering scientists an infrequent opportunity to
study the insects' interaction with the environment.

Trillions of the Magicicada will appear this month to fornicate furiously for
about six weeks and then die, while a rather smaller number of entomologists,
evolutionary biologists and ecologists grab the chance to study the phenomenon.
Newly hatched cicadas will then migrate underground and feed on tree roots for
another 17 years.

* Big Buzz As Cicadas Arrive After 17-Year Gap, Laura Nelson  , 04/05/20, DOI:
10.1038/429233a, Nature 429, 233


08.01. Treetop Opera , Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History

Excerpts: Billions upon billions of periodical cicadas make an historical
appearance this spring. The entomological opera stars rood X?--the species
of 17-year cicadas scheduled to serenade this geographic region with their
insistent love songs.

The cicada's curiously long life cycle still confounds scientists. Most
theorize that the 13-year and 17-year growing up stage is a defense against
predators. Although just about every animal (including humans) feasts on
cicadas, their sheer numbers ensure their survival.

* Treetop Opera, 04/05, Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History
* AUDIO - Cicada Audio Files


09. Are Bacteria Turning Our Own Weapons Against Us? , Alphagalileo

Excerpts: Scientists have identified what may be a completely new way in which
bacteria defend themselves against their hosts. The bacteria have stolen a key
defensive gene from the very animals that they are invading - and are now using
it against them. (...) points out that such a discovery has clear medical
implications. "This study gives us insight into how infectious bacteria
function - microbes that cause diseases such as pneumonia, whooping cough and
plague are using our own gene against us. With this new information, we could
potentially produce antibodies to give our immune systems a way to identify the

* Are Bacteria Turning Our Own Weapons Against Us?, T. Dawson dawson@embl.de ,
2004/05/20, Alphagalileo
* Contributed by Atin Das


10. Exclusive Consolidated Memory Phases in Drosophila , Science

Excerpts: Two types of consolidated memory have been described in Drosophila,
anesthesia-resistant memory (ARM), a shorter-lived form, and stabilized
long-term memory (LTM). (...) On the contrary, we show that LTM formation leads
to the extinction of ARM. Flies devoid of mushroom body vertical lobes cannot
form LTM, but spaced conditioning can still erase their ARM, resulting in a
remarkable situation: The more these flies are trained, the less they remember.
We propose that ARM acts as a gating mechanism that ensures that LTM is formed
only after repetitive and spaced training.

* Exclusive Consolidated Memory Phases in Drosophila, Guillaume Isabel ,
Alberto Pascual , Thomas Preat , 04/05/14, Science : 1024-1027


10.01. Imaging Study Shows Brain Maturing , ScienceDaily

Excerpts: The brain's center of reasoning and problem solving is among the last
to mature, a new study graphically reveals. The decade-long magnetic resonance
imaging (MRI) study of normal brain development, from ages 4 to 21, by
researchers (...) shows that such "higher-order" brain centers, such as the
prefrontal cortex, don't fully develop until young adulthood. A time-lapse 3-D
movie that compresses 15 years of human brain maturation, ages 5 to 20, into
seconds shows gray matter - the working tissue of the brain's cortex -
diminishing in a back-to-front wave, likely reflecting the pruning of unused
neuronal connections during the teen years.

* Imaging Study Shows Brain Maturing, 2004/05/18, ScienceDaily & NIH/National
Institute Of Mental Health
* Contributed by Atin Das


10.02. Scale Errors Offer Evidence for a Perception-Action Dissociation Early
in Life , Science

Excerpts: We report a perception-action dissociation in the behavior of
normally developing young children. In adults and older children, the
perception of an object and the organization of actions on it are seamlessly
integrated. However, as documented here, 18- to 30-month-old children sometimes
fail to use information about object size and make serious attempts to perform
impossible actions on miniature objects. They try, for example, to sit in a
dollhouse chair or to get into a small toy car. We interpret scale errors as
reflecting problems with inhibitory control (...).

* Scale Errors Offer Evidence for a Perception-Action Dissociation Early in
Life, Judy S. DeLoache , David H. Uttal , Karl S. Rosengren , 04/05/14, Science
: 1027-1029


10.03. At Times, Children Play With The Impossible , Science News

Excerpts: Toddlers will sometimes try to climb into a toy car or otherwise
treat small objects as if they were large ones, possibly because their brains
occasionally fail to integrate visual information about object size with object

* At Times, Children Play With The Impossible, Science News
* AUDIO - Audible Format


11. A Puzzle That Archimedes Pondered , Science News


RECYCLING PROGRAM. In the 13th century, monks reused a copy of Archimedes' work
by writing prayer texts (horizontal lines) over the underlying mathematical
text (vertical lines).

?Christie's Images Inc. 2004

The other new essay, by contrast, mystified mathematicians. A fragment of a
treatise called the Stomachion, it appeared to be nothing more than a
description of a puzzle that might have been a children's toy. Mathematicians
wondered why Archimedes, whose other works were so monumental, should have
spent his time on something so frivolous.(...)
The Stomachion puzzle consists of 14 pieces ll triangles, quadrilaterals, or
5-sided figures hat fit together like a tangram to make a square and many
other shapes, including those of angular elephants, dancers, and sailboats.

* A Puzzle That Archimedes Pondered, Erica Klarreich , Science News
* AUDIO - Audible Format


12. The Parental Investment Conflict In Continuous Time: St. Peter's Fish As An
Example , J. Theo. Biol.

Abstract: The parental investment conflict considers the question of how much
each sex should invest in each brood, thereby characterizing different animal
species. Each species usually adopts a certain parental care pattern:
female-care only, male-care only, biparental care, or even no parental care at
all. The differences in care patterns are usually explained by the different
costs and benefits arising from caring (...). This paper proposes a
game-theoretical model to the parental investment conflict based on the
parental behavior of St. Peter's fish. St. Peter's fish exhibit different
parental care patterns, allowing the examination of the factors (...).

* The Parental Investment Conflict In Continuous Time: St. Peter's Fish As An
Example, O. Yaniv msosnaty@mscc.huji.ac.il , U. Motro , online 2004/03/16, DOI:
10.1016/j.jtbi.2004.01.015, Journal of Theoretical Biology
* Contributed by Pritha Das


13. Controlling the Ups and Downs of Synaptic Strength , Science

Excerpts: Both increases and decreases in synaptic efficiency can be triggered
by activation of the N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA) type of glutamate receptor.
How can activation of the same receptor lead to diametrically opposite changes
in synaptic strength? This conundrum has long puzzled neuroscientists
interested in how information is stored in the vertebrate brain. According to
Liu et al. (1) on page  1021 of this issue, the answer to the puzzle appears to
lie, at least in part, in the subunit composition of the NMDA receptor.

* Controlling the Ups and Downs of Synaptic Strength, Tim Bliss , Ralf
Schoepfer , 04/05/14, Science : 973-974


14. Perceived Threats and Real Killers , Science

Excerpts: Bill Gates recently commented that if a 747 aircraft crashes, the
news spreads rapidly; the incident is investigated thoroughly; and the press
follows the incident, the victims' stories, (...). However, if half a million
children die each year worldwide from rotavirus--the equivalent of several 747s
full of children each day--the story does not sell a single paper. Similarly,
another killer virus, influenza, remains underappreciated, and despite the
availability of an effective vaccine, we still have 37,000 flu-related deaths
in the United States each year.

* Perceived Threats and Real Killers, Roger I. Glass , 04/05/14, Science : 927


15. Growth, Poverty And The IMF , J. Int. Development

Abstract: Although the IMF presents itself as a monetary institution, it plays
an important role in providing support to poor countries via its Poverty
Reduction and Growth Facility. It is difficult to imagine more central
development issues than poverty and growth. However, while there is a broad
consensus (...) with which IMF programmes conventionally deal, there is much
less agreement about the causes of economic growth and poverty. This carries
lessons for the design of the PRGF. While most reviews of it focus on process,
this paper offers a more fundamental analysis of the Fund's involvement in
growth and poverty reduction

* Growth, Poverty And The IMF, G. Bird g.bird@surrey.ac.uk , Apr. 2004, DOI:
10.1002/jid.1111, Journal of International Development
* Contributed by Pritha Das


16. Smart Glasses Detect Eye Contact , NewScientist


The current appearance of the glasses is likely to ensure plenty of looks
(Image: Human Media Lab)

The glasses consist of a normal pair of shades with a small CCD camera attached
on the bridge between the lenses. This is connected to a handheld computer,
worn at the hip, which handles the image processing.

Light emitting diodes, or LEDs, positioned around the lenses emit infrared
light creating a kind of "red eye" effect in the eyes of anyone facing the
camera. This is used to locate any eyes in the scene.
The system then looks for the glint created by the light reflecting off the
cornea (...).

* Smart Glasses Detect Eye Contact, Duncan Graham-Rowe  , 04/05/19, New


17. Religion and Science , Futures

Abstract: Employing data from a massive, international web-based survey, and
from a variety of other sources, this essay explores three different models of
the future: religion without science, religion with science, and science
without religion. In so doing, it presents eight different scenarios for the
future of religion that citizens of the world currently imagine: revival of
conventional faith, proliferation of religious movements, the new age,
fanaticism, religious conflict, the millennium, scientism, and secularization.
Such social issues as population explosion or collapse and inter-denominational
conflict render the future relationship between religion and science crucially
important for the world.

* Religion and Science, William Sims Bainbridge , 2004-05-11, DOI:
10.1016/j.futures.2004.02.003, Futures, Article in Press, Corrected Proof
* Contributed by Carlos Gershenson


17.01. Nobility and Stupidity: Modeling the Evolution of Class Endogamy , arXiv

Abstract: Class endogamy is a phenomenon in which nobles only marry other
nobles and commoners only marry other commoners. The origin of class endogamy,
and of social stratification in general, is a major open question in
archaeology. This paper implements a verbal model proposed by Marcus and
Flannery as a class of agent-based computer models by generalizing and
simplifying a mathematical model of marriage markets developed by Burdett and
Coles. One force that can produce class endogamy occurs if agents are only
willing to marry suitors having status no less than some fixed value below the
status of their highest-status suitor, which they can learn. Another such force
results if children inherit the average of their parents' statuses. In
contrast, status achieved over an agent's lifetime can be viewed as noise,
analogous to mutation in biological evolution. I propose that class endogamy
may have resulted from the interaction of forces such as these, along with
other factors such as ideology. Simulation results are presented, and potential
areas for future research are sketched out. The validity of these models for
any particular culture depends, of course, on whether these forces were
actually operating in that society.

* Nobility and Stupidity: Modeling the Evolution of Class Endogamy, Theodore C.
Belding http://www-personal.umich.edu/~streak/, 2004-05-19, DOI:
nlin.AO/0405048, arXiv
* Contributed by Carlos Gershenson


18. Turning Friend Into Foe in Baghdad , NY Times

Excerpts: The Americans are claiming that Mr. Chalabi passed secret
intelligence to Iran. This may or may not be true ?he has long had ties to the
Tehran government ?but in any case it provides a convenient excuse to pin all
the occupation's failings on him. No weapons found? It must be because of bad
intelligence fed to the Pentagon by Mr. Chalabi's political group, the Iraqi
National Congress. Terrorism on the rise? Must be because the Baath Party and
the military were disbanded after the war at Mr. Chalabi's insistence.

* Turning Friend Into Foe in Baghdad, Asla Aydintasba  , 04/05/22, NYTimes


18.01. Poor Security Has Undermined Iraq's Reconstruction Effort , Knight
Ridder Newspapers

Excerpts: In April, U.S. forces launched a siege against the insurgency in
western Iraq, the heartland of Sunni Islam, where Saddam drew his strongest
support. It resulted in a bloody standoff in the town of Fallujah that ended
when Marines turned the town over to former Saddam loyalists. Meanwhile,
renegade cleric Muqtada al-Sadr began a Shiite Muslim uprising in southern holy
cities, showing widespread dissatisfaction among Iraq's majority Shiite
Only the Kurds in northern Iraq appear relatively happy, although their drift
toward independence raises questions about whether Iraq can be held together.

* Poor Security Has Undermined Iraq's Reconstruction Effort, Hannah Allam  ,
04/05/24, Knight Ridder Newspapers


19. Complex Challenges: Global Terrorist Networks


19.01. Reveal the Rules , Washington Post

Excerpts: Rules for the interrogation of detainees used to be published in
widely available Army manuals. But the Bush administration has classified the
procedures it has approved for the Guantanamo Bay prison, Afghanistan and Iraq
-- even though it claims that all are in compliance with the Geneva
Conventions. (...) The Pentagon still has not met the committee's request for
the legal memos that supposedly justify such techniques as hooding, putting
prisoners in stress positions, sleep and dietary deprivation and intimidation
by dogs.

* Reveal the Rules, 04/05/23, Editorial, Washingtonpost.com


19.02. U.S. Nearing Deal on Way to Track Foreign Visitors , NY Times

Excerpts: The Department of Homeland Security is on the verge of awarding the
biggest contract in its young history for an elaborate system that could cost
as much as $15 billion and employ a network of databases to track visitors to
the United States long before they arrive.

(...) federal officials try to improve significantly their ability to monitor
those who enter at more than 300 border-crossing checkpoints by land, sea and
air, where they are going and whether they pose a terrorist threat.

* U.S. Nearing Deal on Way to Track Foreign Visitors, Eric Lichtblau , John
Markoff  , 04/05/24, NYTimes


19.03. Database Tagged 120,000 as Possible Terrorist Suspects , NY Times

Excerpts: Before helping to start the criminal information project known as
Matrix, a database contractor gave United States and Florida authorities the
names of 120,000 people who showed a statistical likelihood of being
terrorists, resulting in some investigations and arrests.

The "high terrorism factor" scoring system also became a critical selling point
for the involvement of the database company, Seisint Inc., in the project.

Public records (...) show that Justice Department officials cited the scoring
technology in appointing Seisint the sole contractor on the $12 million federal

* Database Tagged 120,000 as Possible Terrorist Suspects, 04/05/21, The
Associated Press, NYTimes


19.04. Evidence Is Cited Linking Koreans to Libya Uranium , NY Times

Excerpts: International inspectors have discovered evidence that North Korea
secretly provided Libya with nearly two tons of uranium in early 2001,(...).

At a moment when the Bush administration is focused on Iraq, the fresh
intelligence on North Korea poses another challenge to the United States.

The classified evidence ?many details of which are still sketchy ?has touched
off a race among the world's intelligence services to explore whether North
Korea has made similar clandestine sales to other nations or perhaps even to
terror groups seeking atomic weapons.

* Evidence Is Cited Linking Koreans to Libya Uranium, David E. Sanger , William
J. Broad  , 04/05/23, NYTimes


20. Links & Snippets


20.01. Other Publications

- Interesting Synchronization-Like Behavior, G. H. Erjaee  , M. H. Atabakzade
, L. M. Saha , Apr. 2004, International Journal Of Bifurcation And Chaos, DOI:
- Multi-Scale Continuum Mechanics: From Global Bifurcations To Noise Induced
High-Dimensional Chaos, I. B. Schwartz  , D. S. Morganm  , Lora Billings  ,
Ying-Cheng Lai , 2004/05/21, Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear
Science, DOI: 10.1063/1.1651691
- Chaotic Digital Communication By Encoding Initial Conditions, G. Xiaofeng  ,
W. Xingang  , Z. Meng , 2004/05/21, Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of
Nonlinear Science, DOI: 10.1063/1.1755180
- Why Cooperate? An Economic Perspective Is Not Enough, R. Schuster
Schuster@psy.haifa.ac.il , A. Perelberg , online 2004/05/11, Behavioural
Processes, DOI: 10.1016/j.beproc.2004.03.008
- Molar And Molecular Views Of Choice, W. M. Baum wmbaum@ucdavis.edu , online
2004/05/05, Behavioural Processes, DOI: 10.1016/j.beproc.2004.03.013
- A Study On Experiment Of Human Behavior For Evacuation Simulation, D. Lee
dklee@kriso.re.kr , J.-H. Park jhpark@kriso.re.kr , H. Kim kht@kriso.re.kr ,
2004/02/19, Ocean Engineering, DOI: 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2003.12.003
- Thermodynamic Constraints For Biochemical Networks, D.A.Daniel  , A. Beard
dbeard@mcw.edu , E. Babson  , E. Curtis  , H. Qian , online 2004/03/05, Journal
of Theoretical Biology, DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2004.01.008
- Phenological Resonance And Quantum Life History, A. E. Vinogradov
aevin@mail.cytspb.rssi.ru , O.V.Olga  , V. Anatskaya , online 2004/03/11,
Journal of Theoretical Biology, DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2004.02.003
- Chaotification Of Discrete-Time Systems Using Neurons, H. S. Kwok  , Wallace
K. S. Tang , Apr. 2004, International Journal Of Bifurcation And Chaos, DOI:
- Long-Term Effects Of Flipper Bands On Penguins, M. G.-Clerc  , J. P. Gendner
, C. A. Ribic  , W. R. Fraser  , E. J. Woehler  , S. Descamps  , C. Gilly  , C.
Bohec  , Y. Le Maho , 2004/05/17, Alphagalileo & Biology Letters
- Random Drift And Culture Change, R. A. Bentley  , M. W. Hahn  , S. Shennan ,
2004/05/17, Alphagalileo & Proceedings Biological Sciences
- Worker Policing By Egg Eating In The Ponerine Ant Pachycondyla Inversa, P.
D'Ettorre  , J. Heinze  , F. L. W Ratnieks , 2004/05/17, Alphagalileo &
Proceedings Biological Sciences
- Artificial Light-dark Cycles Expose Circadian Clocks At Odds With Each Other,
2004/05/18, ScienceDaily & University Of Washington
- Brain Scans By Weill Cornell Scientist Help Poor Readers Improve, 2004/05/20,
ScienceDaily & Cornell University
- Traffic-driven model of the World Wide Web graph, Alain Barrat , Marc
Barthelemy , Alessandro Vespignan , 2004-05-20, arXiv, DOI: cs.NI/0405070
- How Crucial is Small World Connectivity for Dynamics?, Prashant M. Gade ,
Sudeshna Sinha , 2004-05-21, arXiv, DOI: nlin.CD/0405049
- Constrained, Non-linear, Derivative-Free, Parallel Optimization of
Continuous, High-Computing Load, Noisy Objective Functions, Frank Vanden
Berghen http://iridia.ulb.ac.be/~fvandenb/, 2004-04-19, PhD Thesis, IRIDIA, ULB
- Complex Networks, T.S.Evans , 2004-05-06, arXiv, DOI: cond-mat/0405123
- Enhanced Open Ocean Storage of CO2 from Shelf Sea Pumping, Helmuth Thomas ,
Yann Bozec , Khalid Elkalay , Hein J. W. de Baar
, 04/05/14, Science : 1005-1008
- Life's Chemical Kitchen, Barbara Sherwood Lollar
, 04/05/14, Science : 972-973
- New Insights into the Structure of Water with Ultrafast Probes, Yan Zubavicus
  , Michael Grunze
, 04/05/14, Science : 974-976
- Evidence of Huge, Deadly Impact Found Off Australian Coast?, Richard A. Kerr
, 04/05/14, Science : 941
- Bad Break: Homocysteine may weaken bones, Nathan Seppa , 04/05/15, Science
- Underwater Pavement: Asphalt deposits cover parts of Gulf of Mexico, Science
News. Explorations of the seafloor in the southern Gulf of Mexico have revealed
lavalike flows of asphalt that are home to a thriving ecosystem of microbes,
mussels, tubeworms, and crab
- Holey Water: Punctured fluid stays riddled, Science News. Extreme vibrations
and high concentrations of tiny particles, such as cornstarch, in water can
create holes in the liquid.
- Expanding The Code: Engineered Bacteria Are Genetic Rebels, Science News.
Researchers have created a bacterium that can incorporate artificial amino
acids into their proteins.
- Rethinking Refuges? Drifting Pollen May Bring Earlier Pest Resistance To
Bioengineered Crops, Susan Milius , Science News
- The Rise of Antibubbles, Science News. Tiny globules of water enclosed by
thin shells of air in water that look like bubbles but don't act like them have
recently become the objects of serious study.
- Nicotine Limits Cold Adaptation, Science News. A new study homes in on why
smokers may have a harder time staying warm in frigid environments.
- Neandertals May Have Grown Up Quickly, Science News. A new analysis of fossil
teeth indicates that Neandertals grew to maturity at a faster pace than people
- Last Hideout Of The Unknown? , Peter A. Lawrence , Scale and proportion: do
the mechanisms of planar polarity also help determine the shape and size of
- Reproductive Biology: Pillow Talk In Plants, Bruce Mcclure , Flowering plants
have sophisticated mating systems that determine whether a pollen suitor is
accepted or rejected. Knowledge of how such systems operate has just taken two
steps forward.
- Condensed-Matter Physics: Atomic Beads On Strings Of Light, Murray J. Holland
, A new regime of strongly correlated quantum behaviour has been reached with
the creation of a one-dimensional Tonks irardeau gas from ultracold atoms
trapped within thin tubes of light.
- Gene Regulation: Selfish Elements Make A Mark 253, Frederic Bushman ,
Transposons qualify as 'selfish' DNA elements, adding new copies of themselves
into our genomes without regard for the consequences. This wilful habit may,
however, help in normal gene regulation.
- Evolutionary biology: Lamprey Hox genes and the evolution of jaws, Yoko Takio
, Massimo Pasqualetti , Shigehiro Kuraku , Shigeki Hirano , Filippo M. Rijli  ,
Shigeru Kuratani
- Regional Climate Shifts Caused By Gradual Global Cooling In The Pliocene
Epoch 263, Ana Christina Ravelo , Dyke H. Andreasen , Mitchell Lyle , Annette
Olivarez Lyle  , Michael W. Wara
- Cosmic Dark Age Found In Shadows, Marcus Chown  , 04/05/24, New Scientist
- Aspirin Changes Sexual Behaviour Of Rats, 04/05/23, New Scientist, Newborn
male rats given aspirin and other similar drugs have lowered libido later in
life - the implications for humans are uncertain
- Four-Winged Birds May Have Been First Fliers, Jeff Hecht  , 04/05/23, New
- Low Sperm Counts Linked To Gene Control Flaw, 04/05/21, New Scientist, The
discovery may mean such men pass defects on to children they conceive via
assisted reproductive technologies
- Clubbers Choose Chip Implants To Jump Queues, 04/05/21, New Scientist, People
signing up as VIP members of a Spanish nightclub are using under-the-skin RFID
tags to get in and pay for drinks
- Galaxy Cluster X-Rays Confirm Dark Energy, Stephen Battersby  , 04/05/18, New
- Splinters of Light, Jr Minkel  , 04/05/20, Science Now,

Outstanding wave. By shining a brief pulse of red laser light into water,
researchers observed the pulse shed off a longer-lived, slower flash of light.


- Flippered Flight, John Pickrell , 04/05/18, Science Now,

Flip a wing. Humpback whales have a thing or two to teach aerospace engineers.

CREDIT: CHIN ET AL., NATURE 393, 6686 (1998)

- Soccer Ball Universe Out of Bounds, Jr Minkel  , 04/05/17, Science Now,

Cosmic circles. A simulated pattern of cosmic microwave background radiation in
a finite universe sports matching circles of hot and cold spots, outlined in


- Whiskers on the Brain, Kathleen Wong, ,  , 04/05/17, Science Now
- Telomere Repair, Well-Timed, Cloned embryos aren  necessarily doomed to have
short telomeres


20.02. Webcast Announcements

Science Education Forum for Chinese Language Culture, , Panel Discussion,
Taipei, Taiwan, 04/05/01

Nonlinear Dynamics And Chaos: Lab Demonstrations, Strogatz, Steven H.,
Internet-First University Press, 1994

World Economic Forum 2004, Davos, Switzerland   Riding the Next Democratic
Wave, Al-Thani, Khan, Vike-Freiberga, Wade, Soros, Zakaria, World Economic
Forum, 04/01/25
  The Future of Global Interdependence, Kharrazi, Held, Owens, Shourie, Annan,
Martin, Schwab, World Economic Forum, 04/01/25  Why Victory Against Terrorism
Demands Shared Values

  CODIS 2004, International Conference On Communications, Devices And
Intelligent Systems, 2004 Calcutta, India, 04/01/09-10 EVOLVABILITY &
INTERACTION: Evolutionary Substrates of Communication, Signaling, and
Perception in the Dynamics of Social Complexity, London, UK, 03/10/08-10 The
Semantic Web and Language Technology - Its Po tential and Practicalities,
Bucharest, Romania, 03/07/28-08/08 ECAL 2003, 7th European Conference on
Artificial Life, Dortmund, Germany, 03/09/14-17 New Santa Fe Institute
President About His Vision for SFI's Future Role, (Video, Santa Fe, NM,
03/06/04) SPIE's 1st Intl Symp on Fluctuations and Noise, Santa Fe, NM,
2003/06/01-04 NAS Sackler Colloquium on Mapping Knowledge Domains, Video/Audio
Report, 03/05/11 13th Ann Intl Conf, Soc f Chaos Theory in Psych & Life
Sciences, Boston, MA, USA, 2003/08/08-10 CERN Webcast Service, Streamed videos
of Archived Lectures and Live Events Dean LeBaron's Archive of Daily Video
Commentary, Ongoing Since February 1998 Edge Videos


20.03. Conference & Call for Papers Announcements

  Annual Workshop on Economics and Heterogeneous Interaction Agents
  (WEHIA04), Kyoto, Japan, 2004/05/27-29

  International Symposium on HIV & Emerging Infectious
  Diseases, Toulon, France, 04/06/03-05

  Experimental Chaos Conference, Florence, Italy,

  An Intl Tribute to Francisco Varela, Paris,04/06/18-20

Intl Conf on Linking Systems Thinking, Innovation,Quality, Entrepreneurship and
Environment (STIQE),
MARIBOR, SLOVENIA, 04/06/24-26

Biannual Meeting Society for Research on Biological Rhythms, Whistler, BC,

NAACSOS 2004, North American Association for Computational Social and
Organizational Science, Pittsburgh PA, 04/06/27-29

Statphys - Kolkata V An International Conference on Complex Networks:
Structure, Function and Processes , Kolkata, India, 04/06/27-30

ICAD 2004 10th International Conference on Auditory Display, Sydney, Australia,

3rd Intl School Topics in Nonlinear Dynamics Discrete Dynamical Systems and
Applications , Urbino (Italy), 04/07/07-09

  `Perspectives on Nonlinear Dynamics 2004 (PNLD-2004), Chen!
nai, India, 04/07/12-15

  From Animals To Animats
  8, 8th Intl Conf On The Simulation Of Adaptive Behavior
  (SAB'04), Los Angeles, USA, 04/07/13-17

  14th Annual International Conference The Society for Chaos Theory in
Psychology & Life Sciences , Milwaukee, WI, USA, 04/07/15-18

Facing Complexity, Wellington, NZ, 04/07/15-17

  Interdisciplinary Colloquium, Security Bytes, Security/Life/Terror
, Lancaster, 04/07/17-19

  Gordon Research Conference on "Oscillations & Dynamic Instabilities In
Chemical Systems", Lewiston, ME, 04/07/18-23

Intl Conf Autonomous Agents & Multi-Agent Systems Conference (AAMAS 2004), New
York City, 04/07/19-23

Intl Workshop on: Trust in Agent Societies , New York City, 04/07/19-20

  World Multi-Conference on Systemics, Cybernetics and
  Informatics, Orlando, Florida, USA, 04/07/18-21

The 4 th International Workshop on Meta-Synthesis and Complex Systems
(MCS'2004) , Beijing, 04/07/22-23

  Summer Simulation MultiConference (SummerSim'04), San Jose
  Hyatt, San Jose, California, 04/07/25-29

  SME 2004 Symposium on Modeling
  and Control of Economic Systems , University in Redlands, CA, 04/07/28-31

  International Mathematica Symposium (IMS 2004), Banff,
  Canada, 04/08/02-06

   Fractals and Natural Hazards at
32nd Intl Geological Congress (IGC), Florence, Italy, 04/08/20-28

ICCC 2004, IEEE International Conference on Computational Cybernetics, ,
Vienna, Austria, 04/08/30-09/01

  2004, 4th International Workshop on Ant Colony
  Optimization and Swarm Intelligence, Brussels, Belgium,

An Inquiry into Systems, Emergence, Levels of Reality,
  and Forms of Causality, Trento, Italy,

  Intl Conf on the Simulation and Synthesis of Living Systems
  (ALIFE9), Boston, Massachusetts, 04/09/12-15

  Neuroeconomics 2004, Charleston, SC, 04/09/16-19

  TNew Economic Windows 2004: Complexity Hints for Economic Policy, Salerno,
Italy, 04/09/16-18

Verhulst 200 on Chaos, Brussels, BELGIUM, 04/09/16-18

  8th Intl Conf on Parallel Problem Solving from Nature
  (PPSN VIII), Birmingham, UK, 04/09/18-22

  XVII Brazilian
  Symposium on Artificial Intelligence, Sao Luis, Maranhao -
  Brazil, 04/09/22-24

   TEDMED Conference ,
Charleston SC, 04/10/12-15

  Technology Conference, Champaign, Illinois,

  6th Intl Conf on Electronic Commerce
ICEC'2004: Towards A New Services Landscape,  Delft, The Netherlands,

   Complexity and Philosophy Workshop - 2-Day Conference ,  Rio de Janeiro,

Complexity Digest is an independent publication available to organizations that
may wish to repost ComDig (http://www.comdig.org/) to their own mailing lists.
ComDig (http://www.comdig.org/) is published by Dean LeBaron
(http://www.deanlebaron.com/index.html) and edited by Gottfried J. Mayer
(http://www.personal.psu.edu/faculty/g/x/gxm21/). To unsubscribe from this
list, please send a note to subscriptions@comdig.org.